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e-book Chapter 35, A Perspective on Predicting Currency Crises

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II. OVERVALUATION PREDICTS CRISES

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Cellular and PCS are closely related; therefore, they will both be discussed in one chapter. Your next chapter begins tomorrow. In order to control for high inflation countries we also consider the lagged actual devaluation rate as an explanatory variable. More specifically, we estimate:. The regression controls for the effect of lagged actual devaluation because in crawling pegs only accelerations in the devaluation rate are associated with crises. Table 2 presents the results. The first row in each panel rows 1, 4 and 7 shows that, indeed, overvaluation does help predict exchange rate crisis.